Seasonality refers to the strategy of investing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average between November 1st and April 30th and then investing out of the U.S. equity market from May to October. Seasonality for purposes of this chart does not correspond to any BTS seasonality portfolio. MACD Enhanced Favorable Period refers to the months between April and November when the U.S. equity market may outperform compared to the Unfavorable Period from May to October.
MACD generated entry and exit points may occur within a 6-week window (earlier or later) and may lengthen or shorten the six month periods.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. It is used to track current market trends and is a technical indicator that may be used to decide when to move into, or out of, the market. We do not recommend or offer the MACD as the basis of decisions in the BTS seasonality portfolios. The hypothetical growth shown uses daily pricing from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and MACD signal dates only and does not include fees or expenses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price‐weighted average of 30 major stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. Other periods or indices chosen would have a material effect on the results shown.
The MACD is one of many indicators available in technical analysis. We do not rely exclusively on the MACD indicator, nor do we recommend, suggest or imply that the MACD be used by investors as the basis for their decisions. The MACD should not be used exclusively as a tool, chart or other device that can be used to make investment, allocation or any portfolio management decision. The MACD has many inherent limitations and investors should consider these limitations and all risks associated with the MACD.
Investors cannot invest directly in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not representative of actual investor experiences. BTS did not offer seasonality portfolios for the period analyzed. The chart does not represent the returns of any BTS strategy or BTS clients and does not constitute actual, back-tested, hypothetical or any other type of performance for any BTS portfolio.
The design and implementation of seasonality technical models is subject to uncertainties. Periodic grading and evaluation of all indicators is vital to the reliability of the risk management systems and models in making investment decisions. The choice in equity funds utilized in the Seasonality Portfolios will directly impact investment returns. Equity funds may not have the same or similar investment risks including volatility, capitalization and liquidity. Loss of capital is possible.
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